Hurricane Rita merged into the eternal clouds after registering not even a single drop of rain in our place and I began to wonder the scientific accuracy we have got here. Few hours before its arrival, there wasn't an iota of doubt that its going to bring heavy rains to our neighborhood. The weather station announced the chance of rain to be 100 %. It makes me only laugh about the predictions. I think accurate prediction (even in hours) is almost impossible with the present computational resources. First, I am not sure whether the simulation models are exact. Second, even assuming an exact simulation model, the precision we have is insufficient for the cause. Even if we are able to approximate the real time by millions of bits, there are more than millions left to cause inaccuracy. Probably quantum computers may be able to make a significant contribution but exact prediction may be next to impossible from what I see. A funny scene from 'Swadesh' comes to my mind. Shahrukh Khan, a NASA engineer tries to explain his position to a layman in an Indian village that he predicts rains with satellites. The layman immediately looks at the skies and says there is no rain in another 2 days and asks our hero why he is complicating things.In my opinion, its better if meteorologists start to search for a rational basis for astrology than rejecting it as a mere pseudo-science. When we have such a huge scientific inaccuracy, it makes me wonder whether philosophical accuracy (accurate depiction of two similar philosophical ideas through a common language, like a common representation of Vedanta and Quantum Mechanics) is possible at all in near future.
P.S : I am not discrediting the acheivements of meteorology. Its just that I think it has a very long way to go from here.
P.S : I am not discrediting the acheivements of meteorology. Its just that I think it has a very long way to go from here.
11 comments:
I agree. Almost all computer models get it wrong. I am not sure if the meterologists are considering all control variables which are to be considered, which obviously is not the case.
But instilling fear and doubt in the minds of people, they do so without any simulation or modelling.
"When we have such a huge scientific inaccuracy, it makes me wonder whether philosophical accuracy "
a very true and rational reasoning.:)
Interesting!
Hey Kasthuri,
surely you know the basis for inaccuracy in weather prediction has some thing do with things like the butterlfy effect and sensitivity to initial conditions. there is an interesting book called
IMPOSSIBILITY- the science of limits and the limits of science!
by the John barrow, check it out.
as for astrolgy, yes Kasthuri, there is some basis for astrology and some astrologers do make uncanny predictions. wonder what the basis will turn out to be in scientific terms..
tt Giant
no one can no all the variables about systems like weather , besides simulations are always approximations and not representative of the underlying reality
Kasthuri,
your ideas on vedanta and science are echoing my recently developed convicions that modern logic is not going to permit a smooth unification or even a translation of concepts from one system to another.
SARVAM SRIKRISHNAARPANAMASTHU!
Firstly, good that u remained dry ;)
And yes, there are so much of unknown parameters working that capturing these happenings is never accurately possible.
Forget abt hurricanes. Even in a daily routine of going to work and coming back, we take so much of parameters for granted and think 'we plan'. In a bad day we can be humiliated by the amount of inaccuracy in our planning.
@ tt : Yeh...Almost all my friends here were scared to death. I wonder what would have happened if there was no scientific predictions ?
@ krishna : Good to know you escaped the fury of Rita.
@ ranj : tanks.
@ anand : Oh Anand, good info here again. Initial conditions. I didn't think about it. Yes, I think sensitivity of initial conditions matters in such stuffs. I am learning several things from the blog than what I have learnt so far in my entire life. Keep commenting such informative things.
@ tj : Thanks for your concerns. Planning seems to be an intersting feature but funny that it works sometimes !! In my opinion, the most interesting thing we have in life is the half-determinism.
A guestimate is what science can offer I suppose
Sometimes, it can be really felt that, man likes to be told that he needs to be afraid, their plans may be ruined etc.... because something is happenig...without such events, life will never know what is 'happiness'...
guess weathermen, doctors and many others - play that role ;)
Kasthuri points out the insufficiency of science with respect to meteorological forcasts. His conclusion - "In my opinion, its better if meteorologists start to search for a rational basis for astrology than rejecting it as a mere pseudo-science."
There is a saying that for a man equipped with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
kasthuri... meterology is the second most complex science (first one being understanding humans!!) :-)... as anand pointed out, butterfly effect is way too much in weather... predicting is almost impossible... all they can do is give warniongs for a wide range of area and people and time... a good start to read this would be to look at lorenz equations which are 3 simple (to look) differential equations but depends so much on the initial condictions (a change in the 15th decimal is enough for a deviation)!!...
@ naikutti : Thank u so much for u'r comments. Apart from the initial conditions, I think numerical instability of the algorithms plays a crucial role. There are several interesting algorithms for scientific computation but I guess the ones which are numerically stable are far less in number.
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